GDDYNYSEThe short version
GoDaddy Inc.
GoDaddy is the largest global domain registrar, serving about 20 million small ventures with domains, hosting, websites and payments. After a 65% fall from its 2025 high, the shares trade near $96.
From a $214 peak in January 2025, the shares fell 65% to a $75 low in June 2026 before retracing to $96.
Mkt cap $7.7BP/E FY27E 8.9×
$96
Share price
$13.6B
Market cap
8.6%
Adjusted FCF yield
~81M
Domains managed
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Snapshot
GoDaddy Inc. in numbers
Price
$96.41as of 2026-07-27
Mkt cap
$7.7B
12m perf
−41.9%
3m ADV
$205.7M
| Year to Dec (USD) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 4.3B | 4.6B | 5.0B | 5.2B | 5.5B | 5.9B |
| EBITDA | 718.7M | 1.0B | 1.2B | 1.7B | 1.9B | 2.1B |
| EBIT | 547.4M | 893.5M | 1.1B | 1.3B | 1.5B | 1.7B |
| EBIT margin | 12.9% | 19.5% | 22.8% | 25.1% | 26.3% | 28.2% |
| EPS | 9.08 | 6.45 | 6.22 | 9.39 | 10.77 | 11.22 |
| P/E | 10.6× | 14.9× | 15.5× | 10.3× | 8.9× | 8.6× |
| FCF yield | 13.1% | 16.4% | 20.5% | 23.4% | 25.4% | 28.0% |
Consensus: S&P Capital IQ (CapIQ) · as of 2026-07-28Derived from run data; ratios use the latest price.
IThe business
What it is
The largest global domain registrar, and an asset-light one
~81M
Domains under management
~21%
Global domain share
~85%
Customer retention
0.5%
Capex / revenue
- Scale moat. GoDaddy manages about 81 million domains for roughly 20 million customers, the largest registrar worldwide, with retention near 85% and capital intensity of half a percent of revenue.
- The engine. Domains are the sticky front door — a ~94% attach product — onto which hosting, websites, email, security and payments are sold.
- The risk it names itself. Its own filings warn that if users shift toward AI tools and away from typed web addresses, demand for domains could fall.
Where the profit sits
Two engines: domain-led Core, plus a growing Applications and Commerce arm
FY2025 revenue by line
Core: Domains$2.3B47%
Applications & Commerce$1.9B38%
Core: Other$0.8B15%
Total $4.95B; about a third of revenue is earned internationally.
- Core platform. Domains and adjacent hosting and productivity generated $3.06B in FY2025; domains alone were $2.31B.
- Applications and Commerce. Websites, marketing, email and payments added $1.89B and carry the higher-growth, higher-margin mix.
- Geography. US revenue was $3.32B and international $1.63B — about 33% — diffuse rather than concentrated in any one country.
IIIThe story now
The fit
Does not fit the framework (P4b hard fail: rising share count); contested: U1
Where the framework landed
| Test | Reading |
|---|---|
| Verdict gate | P4b hard fail — rising share count |
| Yield vs bar | 8.6% vs 10% bar (−137 bps) |
| Diagnosis | P(temporary) 0.68 |
| Confidence | Low |
- What decides it. A single mechanical flag fires: share count rose from 79.8M in 2016 to 140.6M in 2025, tripping the framework's rising-share-count rule, which nothing offsets.
- The counter-fact. That rise predates the buyback era and reflects a post-IPO share reclassification, not compensation or deals — all four jurors judged the repurchase engine sound, and the count has fallen every year since 2022.
- Confidence is low. A name-mask test flipped the contested US-listing criterion (U1), raising a prior-driven-risk flag; the rest of the ledger is clean.
The dislocation
A 65% fall on a dated event, with capitulation-grade volume
- The trigger. The Q4 FY2025 print in February 2026 — guiding to ~6% FY2026 revenue growth — sent the stock down 14.3% in a single session on 8.9x normal volume.
- Capitulation. Volume through the fall ran 3.25x its trailing median, well past the framework's 2x reference line — emotion-driven selling, not a quiet drift.
- Where it sits. Down 65% from the January 2025 peak of $214 to a June 2026 low of $75, the shares have since retraced about 29% to $96.
Damage math
Cash flow rose while the price halved
+19%
FY2025 free cash flow
~2-3%
Forward estimate trim
−55%
Price vs 3-year high
- Inverted signature. Free cash flow grew 19% and forward estimates were trimmed only 2-3%, yet the price fell roughly 55% from its high — earnings held while the multiple compressed.
- Guidance intact. Management reaffirmed FY2026 revenue of $5.20-5.28B; Q1 FY2026 revenue rose 6.1% and free cash flow 15.1%.
- The catch. That ~6% guide still embeds deceleration from 8.3% growth in FY2025 — the bears read the slowdown as the start of a fade, not a pause.
Durability
A decade of compounding, but on a flat customer base
Revenue and free cash flow, FY2016-FY2025
- The gate passes. Revenue and free cash flow have both risen for ten straight years; the durability jury voted year-10 growth likely, 3-1, at 0.76 probability.
- The counter-fact. Customers were roughly flat — about 20.4M — and domains under management edged lower; the growth is entirely pricing and attach, with ARPU up about 42%.
- Never stress-tested. The record is one uninterrupted expansion, so the consistency is real but has not been proven through a downturn.
Capital returns
Buybacks have shrunk the share count every year since 2022
Class A stock repurchased
- Executed, not just authorized. GoDaddy spent $1.60B on repurchases in FY2025 — more than five times its $318M of stock compensation — with a fresh $3.0B authorization running through 2027.
- Count falling. Diluted shares dropped from 151.5M in FY2023 to 140.6M in FY2025; the framework's 'rising' flag compares only 2016 to 2025 and predates the buyback program.
- The wrinkle. Q1 FY2026 repurchases slowed to about $280M, below free cash flow, as the stock halved — the pace is pro-cyclical.
Temporary or permanent
The trial judged the impairment more likely temporary than permanent
0.68
P(temporary), independent trial
$96
Price ≈ zero-growth value
$176
Per-share at 4% growth
- Earnings anchor held. The independent trial put the odds the impairment is temporary at 0.68, not contested — full-year 2025 FCF grew 19% and Q1 FY2026 rose 15%, with guidance reaffirmed.
- The arithmetic. At $96 the market values GoDaddy at its zero-growth perpetuity (~$13.2B equity); a conservative 4% growth implies ~$24.7B, about $176 per share — roughly 45% higher.
- The bear case. If AI-native discovery erodes domain demand permanently the fade is real and the price is fully earned; the offsetting Airo AI monetization is still pre-revenue.
IVThe price
Yield vs the bar
The adjusted cash yield lands just under the framework's bar
Adjusted FCF yield vs 10% bar
3-yr avg adjusted
6.1%
Current adjusted
8.6%
Hand-adjusted forward
10.2%
Unadjusted FY2025
11.6%
- The miss. On the framework's definition — cash flow minus stock compensation minus average acquisitions — the yield is 8.63%, 137 basis points under the 10% bar for a moderate balance sheet.
- Definitional, not weak cash. Unadjusted FY2025 free cash flow yields 11.6%; the whole shortfall is the $318M compensation and trailing-deal haircut, and the 3-year average is rising as the 2020-21 deal wave rolls off.
- Forward. On consensus the adjusted forward yield clears 10% by FY2026 (~10.2%) — but only if acquisitions stay near zero; a return to prior deal spend pulls it back to ~8%.
The clock
The deepest drawdown in its listed history — not yet round-tripped
Drawdown episodes
| Episode | Depth | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-2020 | ~−50% | Fully recovered, then doubled to $214 |
| 2025-2026 | −65% | Retraced ~29% off the low so far |
- Base rate. GoDaddy's prior ~50% fall in 2018-2020 fully recovered and the stock went on to more than double; the current 65% fall is deeper and has not round-tripped.
- Instrument context. Long-dated options out to January 2028 exist and 30-day implied volatility sits at 64%, in the elevated band — though chain-level liquidity could not be verified from a citable source.
- First tests ahead. Q2 FY2026 results, due around July 30, 2026, are the next read on whether bookings and cash flow hold.
What a re-rating needs
A 3x would need higher normalized cash and a multiple consensus does not underwrite
Equity value scenarios
Today's market cap
$13.6B
Zero-growth NPV
$13.2B
4% growth NPV
$24.7B
3x re-rating
$40B
- Where the price sits. At $96 the equity is ~$13.6B — essentially the zero-growth value of today's cash flow, so the market is pricing no future growth at all.
- What upside needs. A conservative 4% perpetuity is worth ~$24.7B ($176/share); a 3x to ~$289 would need normalized adjusted cash well above today's ~$1.17B and multiple expansion not in consensus.
- Not a call. The framework's share-count gate already settled the fit; this is the arithmetic of the gap, not a recommendation.
What to watch
Priced for a permanent fade the evidence calls temporary — but ruled out today by a mechanical share-count flag.
- 01revenue declines for a third consecutive year
- 02share count inflects upward
- 03Core Platform bookings stay negative and full-year revenue growth turns toward flat/negative
- 04the approximately $1.8B FY2026 free cash flow target is missed
This distills a fixed fit test built tab by tab; the full report carries every citation.
Compiled from the full report · 2026-07-28 · For information, not investment advice.